Publicado dic 20, 2016



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Jesús José Rodríguez De Luque http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8179-0109

Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez Rodríguez http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4167-0209

Sharon Gourdji

Daniel Mason-D’Croz http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0673-2301

Diego Obando Bonilla

Jeison Mesa Diez

Steven D Prager http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9830-7008

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Resumen

En América Latina y el Caribe (ALC), el arroz, el trigo, el maíz, el frijol y la soya juegan un papel importante debido a sus aportes a la economía y a la seguridad alimentaria. Dada la existencia de evidencia que señala que a nivel mundial se presentarían cambios en el clima en el mediano plazo, en el presente texto se evalúan los impactos socioeconómicos que habría a niveles de ALC si no fueran implementadas medidas de adaptación. Con este fin, se realiza una integración entre modelos climáticos, de cultivos y económicos. Los resultados muestran que los crecimientos de las producciones de maíz y frijol caerían de manera importante en Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia, Venezuela y Brasil, y los del arroz y trigo presentarían importantes disminuciones en Brasil, Argentina y Uruguay. Finalmente, se encuentra que el cambio climático tiene la capacidad de frenar parte de los avances en materia de seguridad alimentaria en la región, debido a sus efectos negativos sobre la disponibilidad de alimentos.

Keywords

cambio climático, agricultura, seguridad alimentaria, América Latina, Caribe, economía

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Cómo citar
Rodríguez De Luque, J. J., Gonzalez Rodríguez, C. E., Gourdji, S., Mason-D’Croz, D., Obando Bonilla, D., Mesa Diez, J., & Prager, S. D. (2016). Impactos socioeconómicos del cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe: 2020-2045. Cuadernos De Desarrollo Rural, 13(78), 11–34. https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.cdr13-78.iscc
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