Belt and Road Initiative: a Chinese Marshall plan?
Published
Mar 18, 2020
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Abstract
Currently, the most important long-term plan proposed by China is the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), which comprehends projects in many different fields, related to the foreign, but also to the domestic policies. This initiative is quite impressive in its ambition, its diversity, the number of countries and the resources involved. This paper aims to contribute to these investigations by developing a comparative analysis of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Marshall Plan, implemented by the United States after World War II. Comparisons between so different countries and historical moments require obviously extreme caution – notably because the Marshall Plan was completed more than sixty years ago and the Belt and Road Initiative is still on its initial phase. Nevertheless, our hypothesis is that one may find similitudes between these initiatives, notably regarding some of their motivations. The paper argues that behind the rhetoric of the international benefits deriving from the plans, they aim also to deal with national economic and geopolitical wills of the proponent countries. More importantly, they respond to a historical necessity inherent to all market economies, that is, extroversion.
Keywords
Marshall plan, belt and road initiative, international trade, infrastructure, geopolitical power.Plan Marshall, iniciativa de la franja y ruta de la seda, comercio internacional, infraestructura, poder geopolítico.
References
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TEIXEIRA, A. Estados Unidos: a “curta marcha” para a hegemonia. Estados e moedas no desenvolvimento das nações. Petrópolis, RJ: Vozes, p. 155-190, 1999.
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VAN NOIJE, P.; DE CONTI, B. and ZUCKER, M. China: capital flight or internationalization of the renminbi? 21st FMM Conference: The crisis of globalisation. Berlin, 2017.
VERGNHANINI, R.; DE CONTI, B. Modern Money Theory: a criticism from the periphery. Brazilian Keynesian Review, 3(2), p.16-31, 2nd Semester 2017.
VOLCKER, P. A nova ordem econômica. ed. 26. Porto Alegre: Ortiz, 1993.
WORLD BANK. Belt and Road Initiative. March 29th, 2018. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/brief/belt-and-road-initiative . Access on May 14th, 2019.
BAER, M. et al. Os desafios à reorganização de um padrão monetário internacional. Economia e Sociedade, v. 4, n. 1, p. 79-126, 1995.
BAIROCH, P. Economics and world history: myths and paradoxes. The University of Chicago Press, 1993.
BLOCK, F. L. The origins of international economic disorder: a study of United States international monetary policy from World War II to the present. University of California: Press, n. 214, 1977.
BLOOMBERG. China’s Belt and Road is getting a reboot. Here’s why. Bloomberg News, Aug. 14th 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/china-s-belt-and-road-is-getting-a-reboot-here-s-why-quicktake . Access on September 2nd, 2019.
CCB (China Construction Bank). Renminbi internationalization report 2018: optimism towards “Belt and Road” raises cross-border use of RMB. China Construction Bank and The Asian Banker, 2019.
CHATZKY, A. & J. McBRIDE. China’s massive Belt and Road Initiative. Council on Foreign Relations, May 21st 2019. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative. Acess on August 7th, 2019.
DE CONTI, B. and D. Prates, ‘The International Monetary System hierarchy: determinants and current configuration’. Discussion paper n. 335. Institute of Economics-University of Campinas, apr. 2018.
EICHENGREEN, B. A globalização do capital. 34. ed. São Paulo: Editora, 2012.
__________________. Exorbitant Privilege: The rise and fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System. Oxford University Press: Oxford, 2010.
EUROPEAN CHAMBER. China Manufacturing 2025: Putting Industrial Policy Ahead of Market Forces. European Chamber. 2017.
_____________________. Overcapacity in China: an Impediment to the Party´s Reform Agenda. European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. Roland Berger. 2016.
_____________________. Overcapacity in China: Causes, Impacts and Recommendations. European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. Roland Berger. 2009.
GALLUP. Rating world leaders: 2019 – The U.S. vs. Germany, China and Russia. Washington D.C., 2019.
HERRERO, A. G. & XU, J. Countries’ perception of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: a big data analysis. Bruegel Working Paper, issue 1, 06 February 2019.
HELLEINER, E. Political determinants of international currencies: What future for the US dollar? Review of International Political Economy, v. 15, n. 3, p. 354-378, 2008.
HUANG, Y. Understanding China's Belt & Road Initiative: Motivation, framework and assessment. China Economic Review. Volume 40, pp. 314-321, Sep. 2016.
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY INSTITUTE. RMB Internationalization Report 2015: Monetary Strategy in One Belt One Road Initiative. Renmin University of China: 2015.
_______________________________________. RMB Internationalization Report 2017. Renmin University of China: 2017.
JETIN, B. “One Belt-One Road Initiative” and ASEAN Connectivity: Synergy Issues and Potentialities. Institute of Asian Studies, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Working Paper n. 30, 2018.
KARMIN, C. Biography of the dollar: how the mighty buck conquered the world and why it's under siege. Crown Business, 2009.
KUO, L. & N. KOMMENDA. What is China’s Belt and Road Initiative? The Guardian, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/cities/ng-interactive/2018/jul/30/what-china-belt-road-initiative-silk-road-explainer . Acess on September 23rd, 2019.
MARSHALL, G. C. Marshall Plan Speech. George C. Marshall Foundation, 1986.
MAZZUCCHELLI, F. Os anos de chumbo: economia e política internacional no entreguerras. Unesp, 2009.
MONYAE, D. (2019). China initiative offers major trade opportunities for SA. IOL – Independent Media, Opinion, May 2nd, 2019. https://www.iol.co.za/news/opinion/china-initiative-offers-major-trade-opportunities-for-sa-22349861. Access on July 18th, 2019.
OECD. China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the global trade, investment and finance landscape. OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2018.
OFFICE OF THE LEADING GROUP FOR THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE. Building the Belt and Road: Concept, Practice and China’s Contribution. May, 2017.
PRATES, D. M. Monetary sovereignty, currency hierarchy and policy space: a post-Keynesian approach. University of Campinas, Discussion Paper, 2017.
ROLLAND, N. China's Eurasian Century?: Political and Strategic Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative. National Bureau of Asian Research, 2017.
SANFORD, W. F. The Marshall Plan: origins and implementation. US Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, Office of Public Communication: Editorial Division, 1987.
SEQUETTO, M. Três Ensaios Sobre A Moeda Internacional: Uma Reflexão Sobre O Papel Do Dólar Como Divisa-Chave. PhD thesis. University of Campinas, 2018.
SOLOMON, R. O sistema monetário internacional, 1945-1976. Rio de Janeiro, RJ: Zahar Ed, 1979.
STRATFORD (2018) China's Belt and Road Initiative, Five Years In. Access in www.worldview.stratfor.com 25.11.2018.
TEIXEIRA, A. Estados Unidos: a “curta marcha” para a hegemonia. Estados e moedas no desenvolvimento das nações. Petrópolis, RJ: Vozes, p. 155-190, 1999.
UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT (UNCTAD) Global Value Chains and Development: Investment and Value Added Trade In The Global Economy. 2015.
VAN NOIJE, P.; DE CONTI, B. and ZUCKER, M. China: capital flight or internationalization of the renminbi? 21st FMM Conference: The crisis of globalisation. Berlin, 2017.
VERGNHANINI, R.; DE CONTI, B. Modern Money Theory: a criticism from the periphery. Brazilian Keynesian Review, 3(2), p.16-31, 2nd Semester 2017.
VOLCKER, P. A nova ordem econômica. ed. 26. Porto Alegre: Ortiz, 1993.
WORLD BANK. Belt and Road Initiative. March 29th, 2018. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/brief/belt-and-road-initiative . Access on May 14th, 2019.
How to Cite
De Conti, B., Sequetto Pereira, M., & Magalhães Prates, D. (2020). Belt and Road Initiative: a Chinese Marshall plan?. Papel Político, 24(2). https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.papo24-2.bric
Section
Dossier de China, editado por: Bruno De Conti, University of Campinas