Published Nov 5, 2019


Google Scholar
Search GoogleScholar

Julio César González-Navarrete

Julian Salamanca



The aim of this paper is to broaden the scope of a recent adaptive model in order to obtain predictions of total column ozone (TCO) trends over the Amazon Inter-Tropical Confluence Zone (ITCZ). The adaptive model makes daily TCO predictions over the tropical equator-Andes-Region, relying on seasonal patterns and the solar cycle. This study uses daily observations of the sunspot number cycle, given by the World Data Center for the production, preservation and dissemination of the international sunspot number (Royal Observatory of Belgium), and satellite total-column ozone data, collected by NASA (January 1979 to April 2018), for two Colombian locations: one in and one adjacent to the ITCZ. The agreement between daily total-column predictions by the adaptive model and satellite observations is excellent. Daily averaged relative errors around of 3.7 % and 2.8 % for both locations are reported herein.


Inter-Tropical Confluence Zone, sunspot number, total column ozone, solar radiation.

Angell JK. On the relation between atmospheric ozone and sunspot number. Journal of Climate, 2(11), 1404-1416, 1989.

Duffie JA, Beckman WA. Solar engineering of thermal processes. Wiley, New York, USA, 936 pp, 2013.

González-Navarrete JC, Salamanca J, Pinzón-Verano IM. Ozone layer adaptive model from direct relationship between solar activity and total column ozone for the tropical equator-Andes- Colombian region. Atmosfera, 31:2, 155-164, 2018.
doi: 10.20937/ATM.2018.31.02.04

Haigh JD, Winning AR, Toumi R, Harder JW. An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate. Nature, 467(7316), 696-699, 2010.
doi: 10.1038/nature09426

Hathaway DH. The solar cycle. Living Review In Solar Physics, 12:4, 2015.
doi: 10.12942/lrsp-2010-1

Keating GM, Lake LR, Nicholson JY, Natarajan M. Global ozone long-term trends from satellite measurements and the response to solar activity variations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 86(C10), 9873-9880, 1981.

Kopp G, Lean JL. A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L01706, 2011.
doi: 10.1029/2010GL045777

Kuttippurath J, Nair PJ. The signs of Antarctic ozone hole recovery. Scientific reports, 7, 585, 2017.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-00722-7

Labitzke K, Van Loon H. Total ozone and the 11-yr sunspot cycle. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 59(1), 9-19, 1997.
doi: 10.1016/S1364-6826(96)00005-3

McPeters R. Space-based measurements of ozone and air quality. Ozone, Multimission ozone measurements. NASA. Retrieved from (last accessed on March 26, 2018)

Miyagawa K, Petropavlovskikh I, Evans RD, Long C, Wild J, Manney GL, Daffer WH. Long-term changes in the upper stratospheric ozone at Syowa, Antarctica. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14(8), 3945-3968, 2014.
doi: 10.5194/acp-14-3945-2014

Randel WJ,Wu F.Astratospheric ozone profile data set for 1979-2005: Variability, trends, and comparisons with column ozone data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 112(D6), 2007.
doi: 10.1029/2006JD007339

Roscoe HK, Haigh JD. Influences of ozone depletion, the solar cycle and theQBO on the Southern Annular Mode. Quarterly Journal of theRoyal Meteorological Society, 133(628), 1855-1864, 2007.
doi: 10.1002/qj.153

Selvaraj RS, Gopinath T, Jayalakshmi K. Statistical relationship between Surface ozone and solar activity in a tropical rural coastal site, India. Indian Journal of Science and Technology, 3(7), 793-795, 2010.

SILSO. World data center for the production, preservation and dissemination of the International sunspot number. Sunspot Index and Long-Term Solar Observations. Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels
Retrieved from (last accessed on March 26, 2018)

Soukharev BE, Hood LL. Solar cycle variation of stratospheric ozone: Multiple regression analysis of long-term satellite data sets and comparisons with models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 111(D20), 2006.
doi: 10.1029/2006JD007107

Stolarski RS, Frith SM. Search for evidence of trend slow-down in the long-term TOMS/SBUV total ozone data record: the importance of instrument drift uncertainty. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6(12), 4057-4065, 2006.
doi: 10.5194/acp-6-4057-2006

Wellemeyer CG, Bhartia PK, Taylor SL, Qin W, Ahn C. Version 8 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Algorithm. Proceedings of the XX Quadrennial Ozone Symposium, Vol. 1. No. 8, 2004.

Willett HC. The relationship of total atmospheric ozone to the sunspot cycle. Journal of Geophysical Research, 67(2), 661-670, 1962.
doi: 10.1029/JZ067i002p00661

Zerefos C. Factors influencing the transmission of solar ultraviolet irradiance through the Earth’s atmosphere. In Solar Ultraviolet Radiation, (pp. 133-141). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1997.
doi: 10.1007/978-3-662-03375-3_9
How to Cite
González-Navarrete, J. C., & Salamanca, J. (2019). Adaptive model predictions of daily total column ozone over the Amazon Inter-Tropical Confluence Zone. Universitas Scientiarum, 24(3), 425–439.
Geología y Ciencias de la Tierra / Geology and Land Sciences / Geologia e Ciências da Terra