Determinantes de la demanda potencial de microcrédito en Argentina
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oct 3, 2016
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Resumen
Este artículo identifica los determinantes socio-económicos y demográficos
de la demanda potencial de microcréditos en Argentina utilizando técnicas
de estimación tipo Logit con base en una encuesta aleatoria, estratificada
y no proporcional realizada sobre 5.700 hogares en 20 sectores urbanos.
Se corren dos regresiones, una para la demanda de microcréditos con
fines productivos y otra para la demanda de microcréditos para mejorar
o ampliar la vivienda. Se encuentra que el tipo de empleo, la informalidad
laboral, la edad, el estado civil y la reincidencia en el endeudamiento son
los determinantes de la probabilidad de solicitar un microcrédito para
ambos fines. Futuras investigaciones podrían réplica esta metodología
para distintos periodos del tiempo con el objeto de brindar robustez a
nuestros resultados.
Keywords
microfinances, survey of the Argentinian social debt, determinants of the demand for microcredit.microfinanzas, encuesta de la deuda social argentina, determinantes de demanda de microcrédito.
References
Amarante, V.; M. Manacorda, A. Vigorito, and M. Zerpa. (2011). Social assistance and labor market outcomes: Evidence from the Uruguayan PANES. Washington: AIDB.
Anyiro, C.O.; and B.N. Oriaku. (2011). Access to and investment of formal micro credit by small holder farmers in Abia State, Nigeria. A case study of Absu Micro Finance Bank, Uturu. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 6 (2).
Arene, C.J. (1992). Loan repayment and technical assistance among small-holder maize farmers in Nigeria. African Review of Money Finance and Banking, 63-74.
Armendariz, B.; and J. Morduch. (2010). The economics of microfinance. MIT Press.
Awunyo-Vitor, D.; V. Abankwah, and J. Kwansah. (2012). Women participation in microcredit and its impact on income: A study of small-scale businesses in the central region of Ghana. American Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 2 (3), 502.
Balogun, O.L.; and S.A. Yusuf. (2011). Determinants of demand for microcredit among the rural households in South-Western States, Nigeria. Journal of Agriculture and Social Sciences. Pakistan.
Bauer, M.; J. Chytilova, and J. Morduch. (2012). Behavioral foundations of microcredit: Experimental and survey evidence from rural India. The American Economic Review, 102 (2), 1118-1139.
Bebczuk, R. N.; and F. Haimovich. (2007). MDGs and microcredit: An empirical evaluation for Latin American Countries. Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS.
Bhatt, N.; and S.Y. Tang. (2002). Determinants of repayment in microcredit: Evidence from programs in the United States. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 26 (2), 360-376.
Cameron, A.C.; and P.K. Trivedi. (2005).Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. Cambridge University Press.
Carballo, I.; F. Gonzalez Rouco y M. Grandes. (2015). Evaluando la creación de empleo del Plan Pro.Cre.Ar con información incompleta. VI Congreso Anual. El futuro del desarrollo argentino. Buenos Aires: AEDA.
CGAP - Consultative Group to Assist the Poor. (2009). About microfinance. Recuperado de www.cgap.org
Cheng, E. (2007). The demand for microcredit as a determinant for microfinance outreach-evidence from China. Savings and Development, 31, 307-334.
Crouzel, R. (2009). .Por que las microfinanzas no se desarrollan con más éxito en Argentina. IDLO Microfinance Research Paper. May.
Cull, R.; T. Ehrbeck y N. Holle. (2014). La inclusion financiera y el desarrollo: pruebas recientes de su impacto. Enfoques, 92, Washington: CGAP.
Curat, P.; J. Lupano y I. Aduriz. (2006). Demanda potencial por microcréditos en el Conurbano Bonaerense. Fundacion Andares.
Denes, A.; C. Maya, G. Repetto y N. Grosman. (2011). El uso simultaneo de credito formal, informal y el desahorro: explorando el comportamiento financiero de los hogares en Argentina. Documentos de Trabajo, 51.
Derban, W.K.; J.M. Binner, and A. Mullineux. (2005). Loan repayment performance in community development finance institutions in the UK. Small Business Economics, 25 (4), 319-332.
Diaz Quevedo, O. (2008). Determinantes del acceso al microcrédito para emprendedores bolivianos. Banco Central de Bolivia.
Duflo, E.; A. Banerjee, R. Glennerster, and C. Kinnan. (2013). The miracle of microfinance? Evidence from a randomized evaluation No. w18950. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Durojaiye, A.M.; S.A. Yusuf, and O.L. Balogun. (2014). Determinants of demand for microcredit among grain traders in Southwestern States, Nigeria.
Eze, C.C.; and U.C. Ibekwe. (2007). Determinants of loan repayment under the indigenous financial system in Southeast, Nigeria. The social sciences, 2 (2), 116-120.
Foltz, J.D. (2004). Credit market access and profitability in Tunisian agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 30 (3), 229-240.
Garganta, S.; y L. Gasparini. (2012). El impacto de un programa social sobre la informalidad laboral: el caso de la AUH en Argentina. Documento de trabajo, 133.
Gasparini, L.; F. Haimovich, and S. Olivieri. (2009). Labor informality bias of a poverty-alleviation program in Argentina. Journal of Applied Economics, 12 (2), 181-205.
Grandes, M. (2014). Microfinanzas en la Argentina. , Buenos Aires: Grupo Editorial Temas.
Grandes, M.; A. Martiarena, and F. Farina. (2010).Y dónde está la demanda? Una nueva metodologia para cuantificar y caracterizar la demanda potencial por microcreditos en Argentina. Documento de Trabajo de la Escuela de Negocios de la UCA, 5.
Guerin, I.; S. Morvant-Roux, M. Roesch, J. Moisseron, and P. Ould-Ahmed. (2011). Analysis of the determinants of the demand for financial services in rural Morocco. Impact Analyses Series, 6.
Guirkinger, C.; D. Fletschner, and S. Boucher. (2007, July). Credit constraints and financial efficiency in Peruvian agriculture. In American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting.
Heino, H. (2006). Use of borrowed start-up capital and micro enterprises in Mexico: Existence of liquidity constraints. Portuguese Economic Journal, 5 (1), 1-30.
Helms, B. (2006). Access for all: Building inclusive financial systems. Washington: CGAP.
Honlonkou, A.N.; D.H. Acclassato, et C.V. Quenum. (2006). Determinants de la performance de remboursement dans les institutions de microfinance au Benin. Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, 77 (1), 53-81.
Impulso Argentino. (2014). Microcréditos en Argentina: estimación de su demanda potencial y análisis del perfil de sus destinatarios. Buenos Aires: Foncap.
Johnston, D., and J. Morduch. (2007). Microcredit vs. microsaving: Evidence from Indonesia. In Conference on Financial Access, Washington DC.
Khandker, S.R.; M.B. Khalily, and Z.H. Khan. (1995). Grameen Bank: Performance and sustainability, vol. 306. Washington: World Bank Publications.
Morduch, J. (1998). Does microfinance really help the poor? New evidence from flagship programs in Bangladesh. Research Program in Development Studies, Woodrow School of Public and International Affairs.
Musshoff, R., and O. Weber. (2013a). Is agricultural microcredit really more risky? Evidence from Tanzania. Agricultural Finance Review, 72 (3), 416-435.
Musshoff, R., and O. Weber. (2013b). Can flexible microfinance loans improve credit access for farmers? Agricultural finance review, 73 (2), 255-271.
Nannyonga, H. L. (2000). Determinants of repayment behavior in the Centenary Rural Development Bank in Uganda. Doctoral dissertation, The Ohio State University.
Navajas, S., and L. Tejerina. (2006). Microfinance in Latin America and the Caribbean: Connecting Supply and Demand. Washington: IADB.
Nguyen, C.H. (2007). Determinants of credit participation and its impact on household consumption: Evidence from rural Vietnam.
Nikhade, D.M.; P.S. Shinde, and S.M. Nighot. (1994). Crop loan repayment behaviour in cotton growers. Agricultural Banker, 13-16.
Njoku, J.E.; and M.A. Odii. (1991). Determinants of Loan Repayment under the Special Emergency Loan Scheme in Nigeria: A case study of Imo State. African Review of Money Finance and Banking, 39-52.
Papias, M., and P. Ganesan. (2009). Repayment behaviour in credit and savings cooperative societies: Empirical and theoretical evidence from rural Rwanda.International Journal of Social Economics, 36 (5), 608-625
Pitt, M., and S. Khandker. (1998). The impact of group‐based credit programs on poor households in Bangladesh: Does the gender of participants matter? Journal of political economy, 106 (5), 958-996.
Programa de Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo – PNUD. (2005). Las microfinanzas en Argentina. Washington: ONU.
Quibria, M.G. (2012). Microcredit and poverty alleviation: Can microcredit close the deal? No. UNU-WIDER Research Paper WP2012/78.
Rambabu, P.D.; and Y.P. Eswaran. (1994). Factors influencing attitude of the farmers towards farm credit. Agricultural Banker, 25.
Reed, L.R. (2011). State of the microcredit summit campaign report 2011. Microcredit Summit Campaign. Washington DC.
Reinke, J. (1998). How to lend like mad and make a profit: A micro‐credit paradigm versus the start‐up fund in South Africa. The Journal of Development Studies, 34 (3), 44-61.
Roslan, A.; Z. Faudziah, Z. Mohd Saifoul, and M. Rahimah. (2007). Microfinance service for microenterprise: Good practices and performance of selected microfinance institutions in Malaysia. Journal of Yala Rajabhat University, 2 (1), 31-45.
Samba, R. (2013). La lutte contre la pauvrete par le microcredit: Identification et analyse destermes de la demande. La Revue du Financier, 203, 35-51.
Sharma, M.; and M. Zeller. (1997). Repayment performance in group-based credit programs in Bangladesh: An empirical analysis. World Development, 25 (10), 1731-1742.
The Economist Intelligence Unit (2010). Microscopio global sobre el entorno de negocios para las microfinanzas. Recuperado de www.eiu.com
Van Bastelaer, T. (2002). Does social capital facilitate the poor’s access to credit? Understanding and Measuring Social Capital: A Multidisciplinary Tool for Practitioners, 237-264.
Wooldridge, J. (2006). Introductory Econometrics. Thomson-South Western.
Zander, R. (1994). Barriers to credit access in rural Sri Lanka. Financial Landscapes Reconstructed: The Fine Art of Mapping Development. Boulder: Westview Press.
Anyiro, C.O.; and B.N. Oriaku. (2011). Access to and investment of formal micro credit by small holder farmers in Abia State, Nigeria. A case study of Absu Micro Finance Bank, Uturu. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 6 (2).
Arene, C.J. (1992). Loan repayment and technical assistance among small-holder maize farmers in Nigeria. African Review of Money Finance and Banking, 63-74.
Armendariz, B.; and J. Morduch. (2010). The economics of microfinance. MIT Press.
Awunyo-Vitor, D.; V. Abankwah, and J. Kwansah. (2012). Women participation in microcredit and its impact on income: A study of small-scale businesses in the central region of Ghana. American Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 2 (3), 502.
Balogun, O.L.; and S.A. Yusuf. (2011). Determinants of demand for microcredit among the rural households in South-Western States, Nigeria. Journal of Agriculture and Social Sciences. Pakistan.
Bauer, M.; J. Chytilova, and J. Morduch. (2012). Behavioral foundations of microcredit: Experimental and survey evidence from rural India. The American Economic Review, 102 (2), 1118-1139.
Bebczuk, R. N.; and F. Haimovich. (2007). MDGs and microcredit: An empirical evaluation for Latin American Countries. Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS.
Bhatt, N.; and S.Y. Tang. (2002). Determinants of repayment in microcredit: Evidence from programs in the United States. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 26 (2), 360-376.
Cameron, A.C.; and P.K. Trivedi. (2005).Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. Cambridge University Press.
Carballo, I.; F. Gonzalez Rouco y M. Grandes. (2015). Evaluando la creación de empleo del Plan Pro.Cre.Ar con información incompleta. VI Congreso Anual. El futuro del desarrollo argentino. Buenos Aires: AEDA.
CGAP - Consultative Group to Assist the Poor. (2009). About microfinance. Recuperado de www.cgap.org
Cheng, E. (2007). The demand for microcredit as a determinant for microfinance outreach-evidence from China. Savings and Development, 31, 307-334.
Crouzel, R. (2009). .Por que las microfinanzas no se desarrollan con más éxito en Argentina. IDLO Microfinance Research Paper. May.
Cull, R.; T. Ehrbeck y N. Holle. (2014). La inclusion financiera y el desarrollo: pruebas recientes de su impacto. Enfoques, 92, Washington: CGAP.
Curat, P.; J. Lupano y I. Aduriz. (2006). Demanda potencial por microcréditos en el Conurbano Bonaerense. Fundacion Andares.
Denes, A.; C. Maya, G. Repetto y N. Grosman. (2011). El uso simultaneo de credito formal, informal y el desahorro: explorando el comportamiento financiero de los hogares en Argentina. Documentos de Trabajo, 51.
Derban, W.K.; J.M. Binner, and A. Mullineux. (2005). Loan repayment performance in community development finance institutions in the UK. Small Business Economics, 25 (4), 319-332.
Diaz Quevedo, O. (2008). Determinantes del acceso al microcrédito para emprendedores bolivianos. Banco Central de Bolivia.
Duflo, E.; A. Banerjee, R. Glennerster, and C. Kinnan. (2013). The miracle of microfinance? Evidence from a randomized evaluation No. w18950. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Durojaiye, A.M.; S.A. Yusuf, and O.L. Balogun. (2014). Determinants of demand for microcredit among grain traders in Southwestern States, Nigeria.
Eze, C.C.; and U.C. Ibekwe. (2007). Determinants of loan repayment under the indigenous financial system in Southeast, Nigeria. The social sciences, 2 (2), 116-120.
Foltz, J.D. (2004). Credit market access and profitability in Tunisian agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 30 (3), 229-240.
Garganta, S.; y L. Gasparini. (2012). El impacto de un programa social sobre la informalidad laboral: el caso de la AUH en Argentina. Documento de trabajo, 133.
Gasparini, L.; F. Haimovich, and S. Olivieri. (2009). Labor informality bias of a poverty-alleviation program in Argentina. Journal of Applied Economics, 12 (2), 181-205.
Grandes, M. (2014). Microfinanzas en la Argentina. , Buenos Aires: Grupo Editorial Temas.
Grandes, M.; A. Martiarena, and F. Farina. (2010).Y dónde está la demanda? Una nueva metodologia para cuantificar y caracterizar la demanda potencial por microcreditos en Argentina. Documento de Trabajo de la Escuela de Negocios de la UCA, 5.
Guerin, I.; S. Morvant-Roux, M. Roesch, J. Moisseron, and P. Ould-Ahmed. (2011). Analysis of the determinants of the demand for financial services in rural Morocco. Impact Analyses Series, 6.
Guirkinger, C.; D. Fletschner, and S. Boucher. (2007, July). Credit constraints and financial efficiency in Peruvian agriculture. In American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting.
Heino, H. (2006). Use of borrowed start-up capital and micro enterprises in Mexico: Existence of liquidity constraints. Portuguese Economic Journal, 5 (1), 1-30.
Helms, B. (2006). Access for all: Building inclusive financial systems. Washington: CGAP.
Honlonkou, A.N.; D.H. Acclassato, et C.V. Quenum. (2006). Determinants de la performance de remboursement dans les institutions de microfinance au Benin. Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, 77 (1), 53-81.
Impulso Argentino. (2014). Microcréditos en Argentina: estimación de su demanda potencial y análisis del perfil de sus destinatarios. Buenos Aires: Foncap.
Johnston, D., and J. Morduch. (2007). Microcredit vs. microsaving: Evidence from Indonesia. In Conference on Financial Access, Washington DC.
Khandker, S.R.; M.B. Khalily, and Z.H. Khan. (1995). Grameen Bank: Performance and sustainability, vol. 306. Washington: World Bank Publications.
Morduch, J. (1998). Does microfinance really help the poor? New evidence from flagship programs in Bangladesh. Research Program in Development Studies, Woodrow School of Public and International Affairs.
Musshoff, R., and O. Weber. (2013a). Is agricultural microcredit really more risky? Evidence from Tanzania. Agricultural Finance Review, 72 (3), 416-435.
Musshoff, R., and O. Weber. (2013b). Can flexible microfinance loans improve credit access for farmers? Agricultural finance review, 73 (2), 255-271.
Nannyonga, H. L. (2000). Determinants of repayment behavior in the Centenary Rural Development Bank in Uganda. Doctoral dissertation, The Ohio State University.
Navajas, S., and L. Tejerina. (2006). Microfinance in Latin America and the Caribbean: Connecting Supply and Demand. Washington: IADB.
Nguyen, C.H. (2007). Determinants of credit participation and its impact on household consumption: Evidence from rural Vietnam.
Nikhade, D.M.; P.S. Shinde, and S.M. Nighot. (1994). Crop loan repayment behaviour in cotton growers. Agricultural Banker, 13-16.
Njoku, J.E.; and M.A. Odii. (1991). Determinants of Loan Repayment under the Special Emergency Loan Scheme in Nigeria: A case study of Imo State. African Review of Money Finance and Banking, 39-52.
Papias, M., and P. Ganesan. (2009). Repayment behaviour in credit and savings cooperative societies: Empirical and theoretical evidence from rural Rwanda.International Journal of Social Economics, 36 (5), 608-625
Pitt, M., and S. Khandker. (1998). The impact of group‐based credit programs on poor households in Bangladesh: Does the gender of participants matter? Journal of political economy, 106 (5), 958-996.
Programa de Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo – PNUD. (2005). Las microfinanzas en Argentina. Washington: ONU.
Quibria, M.G. (2012). Microcredit and poverty alleviation: Can microcredit close the deal? No. UNU-WIDER Research Paper WP2012/78.
Rambabu, P.D.; and Y.P. Eswaran. (1994). Factors influencing attitude of the farmers towards farm credit. Agricultural Banker, 25.
Reed, L.R. (2011). State of the microcredit summit campaign report 2011. Microcredit Summit Campaign. Washington DC.
Reinke, J. (1998). How to lend like mad and make a profit: A micro‐credit paradigm versus the start‐up fund in South Africa. The Journal of Development Studies, 34 (3), 44-61.
Roslan, A.; Z. Faudziah, Z. Mohd Saifoul, and M. Rahimah. (2007). Microfinance service for microenterprise: Good practices and performance of selected microfinance institutions in Malaysia. Journal of Yala Rajabhat University, 2 (1), 31-45.
Samba, R. (2013). La lutte contre la pauvrete par le microcredit: Identification et analyse destermes de la demande. La Revue du Financier, 203, 35-51.
Sharma, M.; and M. Zeller. (1997). Repayment performance in group-based credit programs in Bangladesh: An empirical analysis. World Development, 25 (10), 1731-1742.
The Economist Intelligence Unit (2010). Microscopio global sobre el entorno de negocios para las microfinanzas. Recuperado de www.eiu.com
Van Bastelaer, T. (2002). Does social capital facilitate the poor’s access to credit? Understanding and Measuring Social Capital: A Multidisciplinary Tool for Practitioners, 237-264.
Wooldridge, J. (2006). Introductory Econometrics. Thomson-South Western.
Zander, R. (1994). Barriers to credit access in rural Sri Lanka. Financial Landscapes Reconstructed: The Fine Art of Mapping Development. Boulder: Westview Press.
Cómo citar
Carballo, I. E., Grandes, M. K., & Molouny, L. V. (2016). Determinantes de la demanda potencial de microcrédito en Argentina. Cuadernos De Administración, 29(52), 199–128. https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.cao29-52.cddp
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