Vol. 17 No. 2 (2013), Articles
Vol. 17 No. 2 (2013)

A model for the scenario analysis based on diffuse cognitive maps: a case study in biomedical software

Articles
Published 2013-06-11
Maikel Yelandi Leyva-Vázquez, PhD
Universidad de las Ciencias Informáticas (UCI)
Karina Yelandi Pérez-Teurel, MSc
Universidad de las Ciencias Informáticas (UCI)
Ailyn Febles-Estrada, PhD
Universidad de las Ciencias Informáticas (UCI)
Jorge Gulín-González, PhD
Universidad de las Ciencias Informáticas (UCI)
PDF (Spanish)

Supplementary Files

Revista Ingeniería y Universidad: Solicitud datos complementarios (Spanish)
Control Cambios (Spanish)

Keywords

Scenario analysis
diffuse cognitive maps
OWA operators
causal models
biomedical software

How to Cite

A model for the scenario analysis based on diffuse cognitive maps: a case study in biomedical software. (2013). Ingenieria Y Universidad, 17(2), 375-390. https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.iyu17-2.mpae
ACM ACS APA ABNT Chicago Harvard IEEE MLA Turabian Vancouver AMA

Download Citation

Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS) BibTeX
Almetrics
 
Dimensions
 

Google Scholar
 
Search GoogleScholar

Abstract

The scenario analysis is a strategic planning method frequently used in technological management. The use of diffuse cognitive maps for this purpose is an approach that, despite being relatively recent, has increasingly gained attention. One of the main difficulties of this approach is related to the qualitative interpretation that is often given to the simulation results using this technique. In this paper, we propose a new model that uses the ordered weighted average operators (OWA) on the notion of distance for the scenario analysis based on diffuse cognitive maps. Among the advantages and innovations is the structuring of the process, the possibility of sorting out the alternatives in a flexible way by allowing to express the degree of acceptance of the risks and the level of compensation among the criteria through the weight vector of the OWA operator. We present an application example for the analysis of the business case in an organization that develops biomedical software, in order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposal.

PDF (Spanish)

AMER, M. (2011). Development of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) based scenarios. Paper presented at the Technology Management in the Energy Smart World (PICMET), 2011 Proceedings of PICMET ‘11.
AMIRI, M.; EKHTIARI, M. y YAZDANI, M. Nadir compromise programming: A model for optimization of multi-objective portfolio problem. Expert Systems with Applications. 2011, vol. 38, núm. 6, pp. 7222-7226.
BANULS, V. A. y SALMERÓN, J. L. A Scenario-Based Assessment Model—SBAM. Technological orecasting and Social Change. 2007, vol. 74, núm. 6, pp. 750-762.
BIFFL, S.; AURUM, A.; BOEHM, B., et al. Value-based software engineering. Secaucus, NJ, USA: Springer-Verlag New York Inc., 2005.
BOEHM, B. Value-based software engineering: reinventing. ACM SIGSOFT Software Engineering Notes. 2003, vol. 28, núm. 2, pp. 3.
BUENO, S. y SALMERÓN, J. L. Benchmarking main activation functions in fuzzy cognitive maps. Expert Systems with Applications. 2009, vol. 36, núm. 3, pp. 5221-5229.
FILEV, D. y YAGER, R. R. On the issue of obtaining OWA operator weights. Fuzzy Sets and Systems. 1998, vol. 94, núm. 2, pp. 157-169.
GARCIA-CASCALES, M. S. y LAMATA, M. T. Nueva aproximación al método tópsis difuso con etiquetas lingüísticas. Paper presented at the ESTYLF 2010.
GLYKAS, M. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: Advances in Theory, Methodologies, Tools and Applications: Secaucus, NJ, USA: Springer Verlag, 2010.
GLYKAS, M.; GIORDANO, R. y VURRO, M. Fuzzy Cognitive Map to Support Conflict Analysis in Drought Management Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. 2010, vol. 247, pp. 403-425).
GOODIER, C.; AUSTIN, S.; SOETANTO, R., et al. Causal mapping and scenario building with multiple organisations. Futures. 2010, vol. 42, núm. 3, pp. 219-229.
HAMMING, R. W. Error detecting and error correcting codes. Bell System technical journal. 1950, vol. 29, núm. 2, pp. 147-160.
JETTER, A. y SCHWEINFORT, W. Building scenarios with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: An exploratory study of solar energy. Futures. 2011, vol. 43, núm. 1, pp. 52-66.
KAZMAN, R.; ABOWD, G.; BASS, L., et al. Scenario-based analysis of software architecture. Software, IEEE. 1996, vol. 13, núm. 6, pp. 47-55.
KOSKO, B. Fuzzy cognitive maps. International Journal of Man-Machine Studies. 1986, vol. 24, núm. 1, pp. 65-75.
KOSKO, B. Hidden patterns in combined and adaptive knowledge networks. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. 1988, vol. 2, núm. 4, pp. 377-393.
LEYVA-VÁZQUEZ, M. Y.; ROSADO-ROSELLO, R. Y FEBLES-ESTRADA, A. Modelado y análisis de los factores críticos de éxito de los proyectos de software mediante mapas cognitivos difusos. Ciencias de la Información. 2012, vol. 43, núm. 2, pp. 41-46.
LEYVA, M. y PIÑERO, P. Modelo para la evaluación y selección de proyectos de innovación en las tecnologías de la información. Revista Virtual Pro. 2010, vol. 01, pp.17.
LIN, C. T. Y LEE, C. S. G. Neural-network-based fuzzy logic control and decision system. IEEE. 2002, vol. 40, pp. 1320-1336.
MADACHY, R. J. Software process dynamics (1 edition ed.). Wiley-IEEE Press, 2008.
MARÍA SOCORRO, G. C. Métodos para la comparación de alternativas mediante un Sistema de Ayuda a la Decisión (S.A.D.) y “Soft Computing”. Unpublished Tesis en opción al grado de doctor en ciencias, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Cartagena. 2009.
MARTÍN-SÁNCHEZ, F.; HERMOSILLA, I. Y VICENTE, F. Updating the BIOINFOMED Study: Recent Outstanding Developments in Biomedical Informatics. European Journal for Biomedical Informatics. 2005, vol. 1, pp. 6.
MARTÍN-SANCHEZ, F.; IAKOVIDIS, I.; NØRAGER, S., et al. Synergy between medical informatics and bioinformatics: facilitating genomic medicine for future health care. Journal of Biomedical Informatics. 2004, vol. 37, núm. 1, pp. 30-42.
MERIGÓ, J. M., y GIL-LAFUENTE, A. M. New decision-making techniques and their application in the selection of financial products. Information Sciences. 2010, vol.180, núm. 11, pp. 2085-2094.
PING, C. W. A Methodology for Constructing Causal Knowledge Model from Fuzzy Cognitive Map to Bayesian Belief Network. Unpublished PhD Thesis, Chonnam National University. 2009.
ROMERO LÓPEZ, C. Análisis de las decisiones multicriterio. Madrid: Isdefe, 1996.
SALMERON, J. L. Forecasting Risk Impact on ERP Maintenance with Augmented Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering. 2011, vol. 99 (PrePrints).
SALMERON, J. L., VIDAL, R. y MENA, A. Ranking fuzzy cognitive map based scenarios with TOPSIS. Expert Systems with Applications. 2012, vol. 39, núm. 3, pp. 2443-2450.
SINGH, A. Architecture value mapping: using fuzzy cognitive maps as a reasoning mechanism for multi-criteria conceptual design evaluation. Unpublished PhD Thesis, Missouri University of Science and Technology, Missouri. 2011.
SMITH, G. y SIDKY, A. Becoming agile: ...in an imperfect world. Greenwich: Manning, 2009.
SOLER, L. S.; KOK, K.; CAMARA, G., et al. Using fuzzy cognitive maps to describe current system dynamics and develop land cover scenarios: a case study in the Brazilian Amazon. Journal of Land Use Science. 2011, pp. 1-27.
STACH, W.; KURGAN, L. y PEDRYCZ, W. Expert-Based and Computational Methods for Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. In M. Glykas (Ed.), Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (pp. 23-41). Berlin: Springer, 2010.
SUTCLIFFE, A. G.; MAIDEN, N. A. M.; MINOCHA, S., et al. Supporting scenario-based requirements engineering. Software Engineering, IEEE Transactions on. 1998, vol. 24, núm. 12, pp. 1072-1088.
TORRA, V. y NARUKAWA, Y. Modeling decisions: information fusion and aggregation operators: Springer, 2007.
YAGER, R. R. On ordered weighted averaging aggregation operators in multicriteria decisionmaking. Systems, Man and Cybernetics, IEEE Transactions on. 1988, vol. 18, núm. 1, pp. 183-190.
YAGER, R. R. Quantifier guided aggregation using OWA operators. International Journal of Intelligent Systems. 1996, vol.11, núm. 1, pp. 49-73.
ZADEH, L. A. Fuzzy sets. Information and Control. 1965, vol. 8, núm. 3, pp. 338-353.

This journal is registered under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License. Thus, this work may be reproduced, distributed, and publicly shared in digital format, as long as the names of the authors and Pontificia Universidad Javeriana are acknowledged. Others are allowed to quote, adapt, transform, auto-archive, republish, and create based on this material, for any purpose (even commercial ones), provided the authorship is duly acknowledged, a link to the original work is provided, and it is specified if changes have been made. Pontificia Universidad Javeriana does not hold the rights of published works and the authors are solely responsible for the contents of their works; they keep the moral, intellectual, privacy, and publicity rights.

Approving the intervention of the work (review, copy-editing, translation, layout) and the following outreach, are granted through an use license and not through an assignment of rights. This means the journal and Pontificia Universidad Javeriana cannot be held responsible for any ethical malpractice by the authors. As a consequence of the protection granted by the use license, the journal is not required to publish recantations or modify information already published, unless the errata stems from the editorial management process. Publishing contents in this journal does not generate royalties for contributors.