Keywords
Multicriteria decision-making
Uncertainties
Robustness
Sensitivity and redundancy analysis
Uncertainties
Robustness
Sensitivity and redundancy analysis
How to Cite
Including uncertainties in multi-criteria decision-making: a superfluous task or a requirement?. (2019). Ingenieria Y Universidad, 23(1). https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.iyu23-1.iumd
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Abstract
Objective: This paper aims to assess cases where it is necessary to include uncertainties in decision-making input data. Materials and Methods: Three case studies with different numbers of alternatives and different numbers and natures of criteria were evaluated. The CRIDE tool [39] was used to include uncertainties in the input data. Results and Discussion: The results obtained showed that for more difficult decision-making problems, the inclusion of variations in input data could change the final decision, while for less challenging problems, it is unnecessary to take uncertainties into account. Conclusions: These findings could be useful for decision-makers in obtaining more accurate results or in saving time and money related to input data acquisition.
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[24] J. Dyer, P. Fishburn, R. Steuer, J. Wallenius, and S. Zionts, “Multiple criteria decision making, multiattribute utility theory: The next ten years,” Manag. Sci., vol. 38, no. 5, pp. 645–654, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.5.645
[25] O. Larichev and H. Moshkovich, “ZAPROS-LM: A method and system for ordering multiattribute alternatives,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 82, no. 3, pp. 503–521, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(93)E0143-L
[26] E. Triantaphyllou and A. Sánchez, “A sensitivity analysis approach for some deterministic multi-criteria decision-making methods,” Decis. Sci., vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 151–194, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5915.1997.tb01306.x
[27] M. Bender and S. Simonovic, “A fuzzy compromise approach to water resource systems planning under uncertainty,” Fuzzy Sets Syst., vol. 115, no. 1, pp. 35–44, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-0114(99)00025-1
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[30] R. Mosadeghi, J. Warnken, R. Tomlinson, and H. Mirfenderesk, “Uncertainty analysis in the application of multi-criteria decision-making methods in Australian strategic environmental decisions,” J. Environ. Plan. Manag., vol. 56, no. 8, pp. 1097–1124, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2012.717886
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[34] A. Shanian, A. Milani, C. Carson, and R. Abeyaratne, “A new application of ELECTRE III and revised Simos’ procedure for group material selection under weighting uncertainty,” Knowl.- Based Syst., vol. 21, no. 7, pp. 709–720, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2008.03.028
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[36] H. Chen, M. Wood, C. Linstead, and E. Maltby, “Uncertainty analysis in a GIS-based multicriteria analysis tool for river catchment management,” Environ. Model. Softw., vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 395–405, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.09.005
[37] N. Chen and Z. Xu, “Hesitant fuzzy ELECTRE II approach: A new way to handle multi-criteria decision making problems,” Inf. Sci., vol. 292, pp. 175–197, 2015. DOI: 10.1016/j.ins.2014.08.054
[38] F. Dong, Y. Liu, H. Su, Z. Liang, R. Zou, and H. Guo, “Uncertainty-based multi-objective decision making with hierarchical reliability analysis under water resources and environmental constraints,” Water Resour. Manag., vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 805–822, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1192-7
[39] S. Galarza-Molina, A. Torres, P. Moura, and J. Lara-Borrero, “CRIDE: A case study in multicriteria analysis for decision-making support in rainwater harvesting,” Int. J. Inf. Technol. Decis. Making, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 43–67, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219622014500862
[40] L. Scholten, N. Schuwirth, P. Reichert, and J. Lienert, “Tackling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis – An application to water supply infrastructure planning,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 242, no. 1, pp. 243–260, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.09.044
[41] A. Afsordegan, M. Sánchez, N. Agell, S. Zahedi, and L. Cremades, “Decision making under uncertainty using a qualitative TOPSIS method for selecting sustainable energy alternatives,” Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol., vol. 13, no. 6, pp. 1419–1432, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-016-0982-7
[42] R. Smith, G. Poveda, O. Mesa, D. Valencia, I. Dyner y P. Jaramillo, Decisiones con múltiples objetivos e incertidumbre, 2nd ed. Medellín: Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2000.
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[46] Subsecretaría de Planeación Socioeconómica, Encuesta Calidad de Vida 2007 Bogotá 2007. Bogotá: Subsecretaría de Planeación Socioeconómica, 2007. Available: http://bit.ly/2Kq4GOz
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[49] D. Davis, The Development of Celtic Linguistics, 1850-1900. London: Routledge, 2002.
[50] Nera.com, 2018. [Online]. Available: http://bit.ly/2WzAOG7
[2] K. M. Eisenhardt and M. J. Zbaracki, “Strategic decision making,” Strat. Manage. J., vol 13, no. S2, 17–37, 1992. Available: http://bit.ly/2ERk6HV
[3] D. Ben-Arieh and Zhifeng Chen, “Linguistic-labels aggregation and consensus measure for autocratic decision making using group recommendations,” IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. A, Syst. Hum., vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 558–568, 2006. doi: 10.1109/TSMCA.2005.853488
[4] R. Lahdelma, P. Salminen, and J. Hokkanen, “Using multicriteria methods in environmental planning and management,” Environ. Manag., vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 595–605, 2000. doi: 10.1007/s002670010118
[5] B. Roy, “Paradigms and challenges,” in Int. Ser. Oper. Res. Manag. Sci., J. Figueira, S. Greco, and M. Ehrgott, Eds. Boston: Springer Science + Business Media, 2005 pp. 3–24. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-23081-5_1
[6] K. Brown, W. Adger, E. Tompkins, P. Bacon, D. Shim, and K. Young, “Trade-off analysis for marine protected area management,” Ecol. Econ., vol. 37, no. 3, pp. 417–434, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(00)00293-7
[7] A. Joubert, A. Leiman, H. de Klerk, S. Katua, and J. Aggenbach, “Fynbos (fine bush) vegetation and the supply of water: A comparison of multi-criteria decision analysis and costbenefit analysis,” Ecol. Econ., vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 123–140, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921- 8009(97)00573-9
[8] J. Gough and J. Ward, “Environmental decision-making and lake management,” J. Environ. Manag., vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 1–15, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.1996.0063
[9] D. Dunning, Q. Ross, and M. Merkhofer, “Multiattribute utility analysis for addressing Section 316(b) of the Clean Water Act,” Environ. Sci. Policy, vol. 3, pp. 7–14, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1462-9011(00)00022-8
[10] M. Flug, H. Seitz, and J. Scott, “Multicriteria decision analysis applied to Glen Canyon Dam,” J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag., vol. 126, no. 5, pp. 270–276, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2000)126:5(270)
[11] R. Nayak and R. Panda, “Integrated management of a canal command in a river Delta using multi-objective techniques,” Water Resour. Manag., vol. 15, no. 6, pp. 383–401, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015593417769
[12] A. Joubert, T. Stewart, and R. Eberhard, “Evaluation of water supply augmentation and water demand management options for the City of Cape Town,” J. Multi-Criteria Decis. Ana., vol.
12, no. 1, pp. 17–25, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1002/mcda.342 [13] I. Durbach and T. Stewart, “Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 223, no. 1, pp. 1–14, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2012.04.038
[14] B. Roy, “Classement et choix en présence de points de vue multiples,” Rev. Fr. Informat. Rech. O., vol. 2, no. 8, pp. 57–75, 1968. Available: http://www.numdam.org/article/RO_1968__2_1_57_0.pdf
[15] N. Belacel, “Multicriteria assignment method PROAFTN: Methodology and medical application,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 125, no. 1, pp. 175–183, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(99)00192-7
[16] S. Hajkowicz and K. Collins, “A review of multiple criteria analysis for water resource planning and management,” Water Resour. Manag., vol. 21, no. 9, pp. 1553–1566, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9112-5
[17] C. Chen and W. Hung, “Applying ELECTRE and maximizing deviation method for stock portfolio selection under fuzzy environment,” in Opportunities and Challenges for NextGeneration Applied Intelligence, B. Chien and T. Hong, Ed. Heidelberg: Springer, 2009, pp. 85–91. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-92814-0_14
[18] C. Weinhardt and S. Seifert, “Developments in GDN research: Introduction,” Group Decis. mNegotiat., vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 107–109, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-009-9185-7
[19] F. Uzoka, J. Osuji, and O. Obot, “Clinical decision support system (DSS) in the diagnosis of malaria: A case comparison of two soft computing methodologies,” Expert Syst. Appl., vol. 38,no. 3, pp. 1537–1553, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2010.07.068
[20] F. Cismondi et al., “Multi-stage modeling using fuzzy multi-criteria feature selection to improve survival prediction of ICU septic shock patients,” Expert Syst. Appl., vol. 39, no. 16, pp. 12332–12339, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2012.04.027
[21] B. Roy and P. Vincke, “Multicriteria analysis: Survey and new directions,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 207–18, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(81)90168-5
[22] H. Barron and C. Schmidt, “Sensitivity analysis of additive multiattribute value models,” Oper. Res., vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 122–127, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.36.1.122
[23] B. Mareschal, “Weight stability intervals in multicriteria decision aid,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 54–64, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(88)90254-8
[24] J. Dyer, P. Fishburn, R. Steuer, J. Wallenius, and S. Zionts, “Multiple criteria decision making, multiattribute utility theory: The next ten years,” Manag. Sci., vol. 38, no. 5, pp. 645–654, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.5.645
[25] O. Larichev and H. Moshkovich, “ZAPROS-LM: A method and system for ordering multiattribute alternatives,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 82, no. 3, pp. 503–521, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(93)E0143-L
[26] E. Triantaphyllou and A. Sánchez, “A sensitivity analysis approach for some deterministic multi-criteria decision-making methods,” Decis. Sci., vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 151–194, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5915.1997.tb01306.x
[27] M. Bender and S. Simonovic, “A fuzzy compromise approach to water resource systems planning under uncertainty,” Fuzzy Sets Syst., vol. 115, no. 1, pp. 35–44, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-0114(99)00025-1
[28] G. Fu, “A fuzzy optimization method for multicriteria decision making: An application to reservoir flood control operation,” Expert Syst. Appl., vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 145–149, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2006.08.021
[29] J. Skorupski, “Multi-criteria group decision making under uncertainty with application to air traffic safety,” Expert Syst. Appl., vol. 41, no. 16, pp. 7406–7414, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2014.06.030
[30] R. Mosadeghi, J. Warnken, R. Tomlinson, and H. Mirfenderesk, “Uncertainty analysis in the application of multi-criteria decision-making methods in Australian strategic environmental decisions,” J. Environ. Plan. Manag., vol. 56, no. 8, pp. 1097–1124, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2012.717886
[31] K. Hyde, H. Maier, and C. Colby, “Reliability-based approach to multicriteria decision analysis for water resources,” J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag., vol. 130, no. 6, pp. 42–438, 2004. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:6(429)
[32] P. Moura, S. Barraud, M. Baptista, and F. Malard, “Multicriteria decision-aid method to evaluate the performance of stormwater infiltration systems over the time,” Water Sci. Technol., vol. 64, no. 10, p. 1993–2000, 2011. doi: 10.2166/wst.2011.154
[33] C. Martin, Y. Ruperd, and M. Legret, “Urban stormwater drainage management: The development of a multicriteria decision aid approach for best management practices,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 181, no. 1, pp. 338–349, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.06.019
[34] A. Shanian, A. Milani, C. Carson, and R. Abeyaratne, “A new application of ELECTRE III and revised Simos’ procedure for group material selection under weighting uncertainty,” Knowl.- Based Syst., vol. 21, no. 7, pp. 709–720, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2008.03.028
[35] C. Giannoulis and A. Ishizaka, “A web-based decision support system with ELECTRE III for a personalised ranking of British universities,” Decis. Support Syst., vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 488–497, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2009.06.008
[36] H. Chen, M. Wood, C. Linstead, and E. Maltby, “Uncertainty analysis in a GIS-based multicriteria analysis tool for river catchment management,” Environ. Model. Softw., vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 395–405, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.09.005
[37] N. Chen and Z. Xu, “Hesitant fuzzy ELECTRE II approach: A new way to handle multi-criteria decision making problems,” Inf. Sci., vol. 292, pp. 175–197, 2015. DOI: 10.1016/j.ins.2014.08.054
[38] F. Dong, Y. Liu, H. Su, Z. Liang, R. Zou, and H. Guo, “Uncertainty-based multi-objective decision making with hierarchical reliability analysis under water resources and environmental constraints,” Water Resour. Manag., vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 805–822, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1192-7
[39] S. Galarza-Molina, A. Torres, P. Moura, and J. Lara-Borrero, “CRIDE: A case study in multicriteria analysis for decision-making support in rainwater harvesting,” Int. J. Inf. Technol. Decis. Making, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 43–67, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219622014500862
[40] L. Scholten, N. Schuwirth, P. Reichert, and J. Lienert, “Tackling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis – An application to water supply infrastructure planning,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 242, no. 1, pp. 243–260, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.09.044
[41] A. Afsordegan, M. Sánchez, N. Agell, S. Zahedi, and L. Cremades, “Decision making under uncertainty using a qualitative TOPSIS method for selecting sustainable energy alternatives,” Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol., vol. 13, no. 6, pp. 1419–1432, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-016-0982-7
[42] R. Smith, G. Poveda, O. Mesa, D. Valencia, I. Dyner y P. Jaramillo, Decisiones con múltiples objetivos e incertidumbre, 2nd ed. Medellín: Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2000.
[43] P. Martin, Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems. London: Construction Industry Research and Information Association, 2001.
[44] Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE), Censo general 2005 a nivel nacional, DANE, 2005. Available: http://bit.ly/2JT1xaB
[45] Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá, Observatorio de Seguridad en Bogotá no. 37. Balance enerojunio de 2009. Bogotá: Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá, 2009. Available: http://bit.ly/2Kvegzw
[46] Subsecretaría de Planeación Socioeconómica, Encuesta Calidad de Vida 2007 Bogotá 2007. Bogotá: Subsecretaría de Planeación Socioeconómica, 2007. Available: http://bit.ly/2Kq4GOz
[47] B. Roy and P. Bertier, “La méthode ELECTRE II: Une méthode de classement en présence de critères multiples,” in Note de Travail, no. 142, SEMA (Metra International), Direction Scientifique. Paris: Grupo Metra, 1971, pp. 291–302.
[48] J. Figueira, V. Mousseau, and B. Roy, “ELECTRE methods,” in Mult. Criteria Decis. Anal. State Art Surveys, J. Figueira, G. Salvatore, and M. Ehrgott, Ed. Boston: Springer Science & Business Media, 2005, pp. 133–162. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-23081-5_4
[49] D. Davis, The Development of Celtic Linguistics, 1850-1900. London: Routledge, 2002.
[50] Nera.com, 2018. [Online]. Available: http://bit.ly/2WzAOG7
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