Palabras clave
Toma de decisiones multicriterio
Incertidumbres
Análisis de robustez
Sensibilidad y redundancia
Incertidumbres
Análisis de robustez
Sensibilidad y redundancia
Cómo citar
Incluyendo incertidumbres en la toma de decisiones multi-criterio: una tarea superflua o un requerimiento?. (2019). Ingenieria Y Universidad, 23(1). https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.iyu23-1.iumd
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Resumen
Objetivo: El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar en qué casos es necesario incluir incertidumbres en la información necesaria para la toma de decisiones. Materiales y métodos: Tres casos de estudio con un número diferente de alternativas y diferente número y natrualeza de criterios fueron evaluados. La herramienta CRIDE [39] se utilizó para incluir las incertidumbres en la información de entrada. Resultados y discusión: Los resultados obtenidos muestran que para problemas de toma de decisión más complejos, la inclusión de variaciones en los datos de entrada pueden incidir en la decisión final, mientras que para problemas menos difíciles es innecesario tomar en cuenta dichas incertidumbres. Conclusiones: Estos hallazgos pueden resultar útiles para los tomadores de decisiones en cuanto a la obtención de resultados más precisos o con el propósito de ahorrar tiempo y dinero relacionado con la adquisición de la información necesaria para la toma de decisiones.
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[3] D. Ben-Arieh and Zhifeng Chen, “Linguistic-labels aggregation and consensus measure for autocratic decision making using group recommendations,” IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. A, Syst. Hum., vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 558–568, 2006. doi: 10.1109/TSMCA.2005.853488
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12, no. 1, pp. 17–25, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1002/mcda.342 [13] I. Durbach and T. Stewart, “Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 223, no. 1, pp. 1–14, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2012.04.038
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[21] B. Roy and P. Vincke, “Multicriteria analysis: Survey and new directions,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 207–18, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(81)90168-5
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[23] B. Mareschal, “Weight stability intervals in multicriteria decision aid,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 54–64, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(88)90254-8
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[28] G. Fu, “A fuzzy optimization method for multicriteria decision making: An application to reservoir flood control operation,” Expert Syst. Appl., vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 145–149, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2006.08.021
[29] J. Skorupski, “Multi-criteria group decision making under uncertainty with application to air traffic safety,” Expert Syst. Appl., vol. 41, no. 16, pp. 7406–7414, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2014.06.030
[30] R. Mosadeghi, J. Warnken, R. Tomlinson, and H. Mirfenderesk, “Uncertainty analysis in the application of multi-criteria decision-making methods in Australian strategic environmental decisions,” J. Environ. Plan. Manag., vol. 56, no. 8, pp. 1097–1124, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2012.717886
[31] K. Hyde, H. Maier, and C. Colby, “Reliability-based approach to multicriteria decision analysis for water resources,” J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag., vol. 130, no. 6, pp. 42–438, 2004. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:6(429)
[32] P. Moura, S. Barraud, M. Baptista, and F. Malard, “Multicriteria decision-aid method to evaluate the performance of stormwater infiltration systems over the time,” Water Sci. Technol., vol. 64, no. 10, p. 1993–2000, 2011. doi: 10.2166/wst.2011.154
[33] C. Martin, Y. Ruperd, and M. Legret, “Urban stormwater drainage management: The development of a multicriteria decision aid approach for best management practices,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 181, no. 1, pp. 338–349, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.06.019
[34] A. Shanian, A. Milani, C. Carson, and R. Abeyaratne, “A new application of ELECTRE III and revised Simos’ procedure for group material selection under weighting uncertainty,” Knowl.- Based Syst., vol. 21, no. 7, pp. 709–720, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2008.03.028
[35] C. Giannoulis and A. Ishizaka, “A web-based decision support system with ELECTRE III for a personalised ranking of British universities,” Decis. Support Syst., vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 488–497, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2009.06.008
[36] H. Chen, M. Wood, C. Linstead, and E. Maltby, “Uncertainty analysis in a GIS-based multicriteria analysis tool for river catchment management,” Environ. Model. Softw., vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 395–405, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.09.005
[37] N. Chen and Z. Xu, “Hesitant fuzzy ELECTRE II approach: A new way to handle multi-criteria decision making problems,” Inf. Sci., vol. 292, pp. 175–197, 2015. DOI: 10.1016/j.ins.2014.08.054
[38] F. Dong, Y. Liu, H. Su, Z. Liang, R. Zou, and H. Guo, “Uncertainty-based multi-objective decision making with hierarchical reliability analysis under water resources and environmental constraints,” Water Resour. Manag., vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 805–822, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1192-7
[39] S. Galarza-Molina, A. Torres, P. Moura, and J. Lara-Borrero, “CRIDE: A case study in multicriteria analysis for decision-making support in rainwater harvesting,” Int. J. Inf. Technol. Decis. Making, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 43–67, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219622014500862
[40] L. Scholten, N. Schuwirth, P. Reichert, and J. Lienert, “Tackling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis – An application to water supply infrastructure planning,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 242, no. 1, pp. 243–260, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.09.044
[41] A. Afsordegan, M. Sánchez, N. Agell, S. Zahedi, and L. Cremades, “Decision making under uncertainty using a qualitative TOPSIS method for selecting sustainable energy alternatives,” Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol., vol. 13, no. 6, pp. 1419–1432, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-016-0982-7
[42] R. Smith, G. Poveda, O. Mesa, D. Valencia, I. Dyner y P. Jaramillo, Decisiones con múltiples objetivos e incertidumbre, 2nd ed. Medellín: Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2000.
[43] P. Martin, Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems. London: Construction Industry Research and Information Association, 2001.
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[45] Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá, Observatorio de Seguridad en Bogotá no. 37. Balance enerojunio de 2009. Bogotá: Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá, 2009. Available: http://bit.ly/2Kvegzw
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